The end of what appears to be a perpetual trade war for economic dominance is not in sight, but the impact of import tariffs is being felt, and the signs are inauspicious. The US government claims that the additional cost of imports is borne by the exporter, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics respectfully disagrees.
The substantive announcement heralded in Sunday’s press on new steps against Russia, that harried oil prices onto monthly highs, turned out in fact to have a substantive fifty-day compliance option. Those that had taken earlier evasive action had to then turn themselves around because all this smells of is another move by the US President in granting out of the money date options to generate time premium. So much for ending the Ukraine war in his first twenty-four hours in office, Mr Trump’s capital as negotiator-in-chief is all but spent when gaming against the chess master that is Vladimir Putin and so are his threats for sanctions on Russia and secondary tariffs on its oil customers.
He is desperately trying to impose his will on other nations, publicly, on social media, and very loudly. Since he rarely keeps his pledges, his credibility is suffering. The market’s judgement was on full display last week in the equity markets. It took just a single week in April to extend the "Liberation Day" tariff deadline by 90 days. Once the latest cut-off point arrived on Wednesday, another extension was announced, this time until August 1.
Copyright © 2025 TP ICAP