Daily Oil Fundamentals

Wishful Thinking or More than Rumours?

01 Apr 2026

Wishful Thinking or More than Rumours?

Whether the sharp sell-off in oil prices yesterday and the rally in equities were the result of end-of-month and end-of-quarter positioning or unconfirmed reports of Iran's willingness to end the war is unclear. In the latter case, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be in focus. The possibilities are discussed below. What were, nonetheless, factual developments were the strengthening of the backwardation in both the WTI and Brent structures, notwithstanding the fall in outright prices, renewed overnight attacks on the Gulf states and Iran, and the US warning its citizens in Saudi Arabia to shelter due to alleged threats against US interests in the country.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Obliterate or Communicate

31 Mar 2026

Obliterate or Communicate

Another morning, another attempt at panning for truth. Yesterday, the US President promised to obliterate Iran’s power stations and desalination plants if Tehran did not shortly agree to the terms of ceasefire proposed in its fifteen-point plan. Such bullishness kept prices propped most of yesterday, but an overnight article in the Wall Street Journal indicates that privately, Donald Trump might just be a little more pliant.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Widening Conflict

30 Mar 2026

Widening Conflict

Oil prices took an early breather this morning, although by the performance of Gasoil futures, it looks as if diesel did not get the memo and inspires the rest of the complex to once again rally and doubt the US framing of current negotiations. President Trump in all the magnanimousness he could muster, granted Iran a further ten days to agree to the terms set out in the US offer of a ceasefire, and civilian power supply targets would be left be during which Trump expected Hormuz to be opened