Daily Oil Fundamentals

Persistent Ambivalence and Volatility

30 May 2025

Persistent Ambivalence and Volatility

Wednesday’s unanimous ruling of the Federal Court of International Trade concluded that imposing blanket import tariffs is an executive overreach and does not satisfy the criteria of national emergency. (On a side note, the very same legal argument was used to strike down Joe Biden’s student loan relief programme.) Such a sweeping measure is the responsibility of Congress and is above the US President’s pay grade. The ruling demonstrated that Donald Trump is not only susceptible to the judgement of the bond market but also to the rule of law.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Markets Cheer on Trade Court’s Blocking of Tariffs

29 May 2025

Markets Cheer on Trade Court’s Blocking of Tariffs

Recently, we discussed along with others, on how the tariff policy of this current White House might just be given another layer of intrigue by the little know Federal Court of International Trade. That complication found fruition yesterday as the court indeed ruled President Trump’s invocation of emergency laws giving him the power to impose tariffs as unlawful. The New York gathering of judges said it was the role of Congress to regulate commerce, and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not empower him ability to sweep the world with tariffs.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

It is Almost All About Perceptions

28 May 2025

It is Almost All About Perceptions

Empirical evidence of the last few months suggests that whenever oil and equities decouple, the former is influenced by supply-side developments. Yesterday stock markets rallied hard, bond yields tumbled, and the dollar strengthened. The return of risk appetite was the result of yet another U-turn in the US tariff charade. It took Donald Trump two days to reverse its decision to punish EU goods shipped to the US with a 50% excise duty and extend the deadline from June 1 to July 9.