He is desperately trying to impose his will on other nations, publicly, on social media, and very loudly. Since he rarely keeps his pledges, his credibility is suffering. The market’s judgement was on full display last week in the equity markets. It took just a single week in April to extend the "Liberation Day" tariff deadline by 90 days. Once the latest cut-off point arrived on Wednesday, another extension was announced, this time until August 1. Yet, in true John Wayne fashion, perplexing threats were renewed and even intensified. Canada is once again in the President’s crosshairs; Brazil is facing 50% punitive measures, despite running a trade deficit with the US; and several other nations are to suffer tariffs of 15–20%. Over the weekend 30% import tax was announced on Mexico and the EU.

Tariffs on copper imports will be raised to 50%, even though the US is a net importer of the commodity. The proposed 200% excise duty on pharmaceuticals is outright nonsensical. And when something doesn’t make much sense, it is usually ignored, hence the solid performance in equity markets, with European indices posting weekly gains and their US peers settling broadly unchanged over the week. There is a growing belief among investors that the August 1 deadline will once again be postponed. We will take a deeper look at the issue in Wednesday’s note, examining all the plausible consequences of the trade war and the budget bill.

Oil kept defying medium-term expectations for a smorgasbord of reasons. Summer demand keeps gasoline prices buoyant; distillate cracks remain attractive, supporting healthy refinery demand for sour crude, compounded by availability problems of the US Mars grade because of zinc contamination. Renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on commercial vessels have elevated the risk premium once again.

In its updated monthly summary on global supply and demand, the IEA paints an awfully bearish picture for the second half of the year and an even grimmer outlook for the beginning of 2026 as OPEC+ ramps up production. Yet it concludes that the current oil balance, given robust refinery margins, might be tighter than previously estimated. The front-end structure is strong on crude oil, incentivizing financial demand and the long-awaited stock build is not imminent. It is, however, most likely the question of when and not if.
Aligning Medium-Term Views
For the past year, forecasting global oil demand has been a hotly debated and controversial topic. The chasm between the views of the IEA, the energy watchdog of rich nations, significant consumers of the black stuff and OPEC, the alliance of oil producers, which strives to satisfy this demand, has been well publicised. There are even speculations that they ‘talk their books’, however, the undisputable facts are that a.) the short-term erratic and capricious policy-making of the US does nothing to support accurate demand forecasting and b.) for the medium-term predicting the impact, the speed and the effectiveness of the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy is an equally arduous task as it is a dive into the unknown and a race in which no stakeholders wants to be the first to act and risk losing competitive advantage, but no one wants to be the last either.

It is against this backdrop that every estimate of future oil demand is thoroughly scrutinised. Any sign of consensus or alignment helps make forecasting the oil balance, stock movements, and price predictions, less cumbersome. With the publication of the 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) by OPEC last Thursday, which covers developments through 2050, perspectives are converging—at least for the next few years.

Research notes, analyses or investment advice usually end with a disclaimer warning that clients’ money is at risk. For the past seven months, outlooks and forecasts usually begin with an admonition underlying the unpredictable economic and trade environment. The WOO 2025 is no exception. In the executive summary, the authors justifiably stress the significant uncertainties that surround the ‘global economy and the energy landscape’.

Starting with the big picture, the broad spectrum of the energy market, the world’s primary energy demand will increase by 23% or 69.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), between 2024 and 2050 to 377.8 mboe/d. This is a slight upward revision from last year, when total energy demand was predicted to be 374.1 mboe/d. The biggest loser will be coal, whose share will halve from 26.5% to 13.6%. Notably, oil will maintain its share, which is around 30%. Natural gas will edge up from 23% to 24%. Renewables will be the bellwether as their share will ascend from 15.4% in 2024 to 26.3% by 2050, a clear sign that the transition is irreversible, only the speed of it is contentious. It marks a slight downward revision from 2024 in percentage but an increase absolute terms.

Although global oil consumption was upgraded toward the end of the reporting period, forecasts were revised downward for the next four years. The 108 mbpd demand projected for 2026 in last year’s report has been lowered to 106.3 mbpd. The 2028 estimate was also revised down by 1.2 mbpd, from 111 mbpd to 109.8 mbpd. The main culprit is China, where economic headwinds, sluggish consumer spending, and persistent challenges in the real estate sector have led to a notable slowdown in oil consumption growth. Beyond 2030, however, a tangible increase in oil demand is expected, with forecasts raised every five years and demand reaching 112.4 mbpd by 2050, 2.8 mbpd higher than in 2024.

On the supply side, OPEC forecasts a 20.6 mbpd increase in global liquid supply between 2024 and 2050. In absolute terms, the 2030 projection remains unchanged, but estimates for later years have been progressively revised upward. By 2050, global liquid supply is expected to reach 123 mbpd, 2.8 mbpd more than last year's projection. US liquids supply is expected to decline over the period. Tight oil production is projected to peak in 2030 at 16.5 mbpd, then gradually decline to 14.8 mbpd by 2050; still on par with 2024 levels. Of the 20.6 mbpd increase in global supply, 5.6 mbpd will come from non-DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) liquids, with the remaining 15 mbpd supplied by DoC countries. In other words, OPEC and its allies plan to continue expanding their production capacity in response to what they see as persistent and resolute demand for oil. As OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated in the foreword to the report, “There is no peak demand on the horizon.”

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