Daily Oil Fundamentals

False Hopes

20 May 2025

False Hopes

Investors’ optimism is admirable. Equities kept advancing yesterday, as the spectacular rally since April 7 continued, and they are within spitting distance of the record highs registered shortly after President Trump’s inauguration. The newly found buoyancy, which emerged less than a week after ‘Liberation Day’, is most plausibly based on the 90-day pause of the gigantic reciprocal tariffs on Chinese and US goods. Yesterday’s telephone call between the Russian and the US leaders further fuelled optimism as the US President announced that direct peace talks between adversaries will begin immediately.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Moody’s and China Dent the Détente Delight

19 May 2025

Moody’s and China Dent the Détente Delight

Despite a bump to proceedings caused by what appeared to be a breakthrough in the nuclear farrago playing out between Iran and the United States, touched on below, oil prices enjoyed an ultimately spirited last week and made decent gains. The ninety-day reciprocal cut in tariff setting between the two most important protagonists, thrashed out in Geneva by representatives from Washington and Beijing, eventually won out in sentiment allowing the main futures contracts to finish +2.5% in the crudes and +3.5% in products.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

When Unpredictability Becomes the Norm

16 May 2025

When Unpredictability Becomes the Norm

Markets, investors, and companies need certainty. Without it, investment is deemed too risky with all its economic side effects. With the Trump presidency, certainty has been AWOL. It is inconceivable that the daily U-turns, contradictory policies, and incoherent narratives are all part of the ’strategic uncertainty’ created intentionally to gain leverage in trade talks.