Both oil and equity prices drifted slightly lower as investor are trying to assess that amidst the chaos caused by Donald Trump’s tariff war, which country or products might be exempted from the punitive measures. This uncertainty will likely remain the impediment to any protracted rally in risk assets.
Last week, the US EIA aggressively cut its 2025 global oil growth demand to 900kbpd and 1mbpd for 2026 citing an occluded economic outlook, uncertainty in international trade and the increased supply from OPEC+. We will look more closely into how the OPEC and IEA report stack up in tomorrow’s missive, but for now it is sufficient to say that OPEC’s monthly contribution paints a much kinder outlook to oil proceedings.
Depending on one’s view, a turbulent week might be characterized as truly worrying or one that signalled the end of erratic and unorthodox policymaking.
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