After months of being on missile watch in the Middle East, the oil gaze turns to the airborne show of military new stuffs being exchanged by Ukraine and Russia. After successive days of permission and use of American and British hardware, Russia ups the ante by shooting a ballistic missile which is the first time such a weapon has been used in the 1000-day old war.
My colleague’s view in yesterday’s note seems to have caught the market’s attention. He contemplated that although the outgoing US President allowed Ukraine to use American missiles to strike Russian territories (and so did the UK yesterday), oil installations are most likely off limits.
The Ukraine war roars back into importance for investment markets, not that it should have gone away, and there is little doubt it is inspired by Donald Trump winning the US election. Would President Biden really have given permission for Ukraine to use US made long-range ATACMS missiles and anti-personnel mines if the status quo had prevailed in the White House?
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