Daily Oil Fundamentals

They are not Good, and not Easy to Win

01 May 2025

They are not Good, and not Easy to Win

One of the posts from the incumbent US President on social media from seven years ago read as follows: ‘Trade wars are good and easy to win’. Whether they are good depends on one’s taste but the first 100 days of his second Presidency showed that whilst erecting trade barriers is a simple exercise, winning trade wars, ie. narrowing trade deficit and bringing manufacturing home, is an arduous if not impossible task.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

100 Days of Carnage Continues to 101

30 Apr 2025

100 Days of Carnage Continues to 101

After a bout of who goes first in the Sino/US tariff negotiations, if indeed they are a thing, the continued standoff is starting to cause as much unease as threats of multiple percentage levies drawn against each other. Equities have stuttered after a very decent recovery, but because of trade war fears, the overnight disappointing earnings from Super Micro Computers is harrying bearish notions that such a diminished performance will see its equal in Microsoft and Meta when they too release their first quarter results.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Fears of De-coupling

29 Apr 2025

Fears of De-coupling

Stalling negotiations between China and the US on trade raises anxiety levels on economic and demand growth prospects once again. It is not even clear whether the two leaders have spoken to one another and the overnight comments from US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bennet added more fuel to the fire of uncertainty. He said in an interview with CNBC that it was ‘up to China to de-escalate’ but his advice is unlikely to be heeded by the leaders of the world’s second-biggest economy.