It is difficult and even dangerous to draw conclusions from the performances of assorted risk assets on the day preceding a long US weekend. Yet, those involved in equities went home happy and will probably have a relaxing barbecue celebrating Independence Day.
The future can only bring results on how tariff deals will affect global trade but with Vietnam being added to trade deals secured before the deadline next week, a fresh bout of risk-on pervades markets and prices react accordingly. President Trump’s tax and spending bill has also proved inspirational to investors who choose to pick out the savings from tax and civil payouts rather than the new accrued debt and put bourses into all-time high territory.
It is not jumping the gun to conclude that looking back at the major events of the first half of 2025 will provide a broadly reliable picture of the impending second half of the year. The January–June period was shaped almost exclusively by the policies of the Trump apparatus. It was volatile, unpredictable, and incoherent at times. No significant change is anticipated for the next six months.
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