Daily Oil Fundamentals

Reciprocal Attacks in Ukraine and Russia Intensify

22 Aug 2025

Reciprocal Attacks in Ukraine and Russia Intensify

We have long held the view that, for domestic political reasons, namely preventing US retail motor fuel prices from rising and inflationary pressures from re-emerging, the US Administration is unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia. There appeared to be no reason to revise this outlook even after last week’s US–Russia summit, which confirmed that Vladimir Putin’s territorial demands and security concerns, including Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, remain as firm, if not more entrenched, than ever.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Fading Peace Prospects, Falling US Oil Inventories

21 Aug 2025

Fading Peace Prospects, Falling US Oil Inventories

A combination of factors pushed oil prices higher, more than offsetting Tuesday’s losses. Following the recent diplomatic pinballing, it is once again suspected that Russia will not accept the role of the loser. Talks of a Russia–Ukraine meeting remain just that - talks - and US security guarantees for Ukraine would only be acceptable if Russia were included. You got that?

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Looking for Temporary Shelter

20 Aug 2025

Looking for Temporary Shelter

Risk was off yesterday as both equities and oil lost value. The retreat in the former might be deemed surprising. Credit rating agency S&P Global affirmed its ‘AA+’ rating on US debt, citing elevated tariff revenues, which are expected to offset the fiscal deficit caused by the spending bill.