Daily Oil Fundamentals

Depleting US Oil Inventories

26 Jun 2025

Depleting US Oil Inventories

After a turbulent two weeks, a sense of calm has been restored. This feeling of normality is a welcome development although one must be prepared for the re-emergence of the mayhem. All it takes is a stray missile or a hostile social media post. For now, however, the shaky Israel-Iran truce remains in effect. Our base case scenario, therefore, is that investors, whilst they will keep their watchful eyes on the Middle East, are shifting their focus back to the macroeconomy and oil balance.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Fragile but Holding

25 Jun 2025

Fragile but Holding

Despite the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran in the early hours of yesterday, missiles and mutual accusations of violations continued to fly back and forth — much to the chagrin of President Trump, who brokered the truce. He did not shy away from publicly reprimanding both parties for the disobedience. While a number of questions regarding the deal and in fact the effectiveness of the US strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains unanswered, the fact that the agreement is still in effect has been met with a massive sigh of relief.

Daily Oil Fundamentals

Peaceful War, Warful Peace

24 Jun 2025

Peaceful War, Warful Peace

In yesterday’s note, we contemplated a gradual price decrease below $70/bbl if oil output and traffic in the Middle East is not disrupted as a result of the weekend’s US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. How wrong we were proven. Oil investors delivered a brutal verdict and after a very brief deliberation, they sentenced reluctant bulls to a daily loss of more than $5/bbl.