The relentless march in stocks continues, as the CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 94% probability of a September cut in US lending rates, even without further undue pressure on the Fed chair. The latest nudge came from July inflation data, which showed headline consumer prices rising by 2.7%, lower than expected.
During the last seven whirlwind months, every week has felt pivotal and relevant, and the current one is no exception. Investors will no doubt stay glued to their screens at 13:30 UK time when the US inflation figures are released. A slight uptick is expected in both the headline and core numbers. They will be used to gauge the impact of US tariffs. Anything above the 2.8% and 3% forecasts will likely trigger a wave of disappointment.
The concept of oil trading has changed so much in recent history, none more so in this day and age of continued political interference. Gone are the times when analysts lined up to offer crafted assessment of production and demand to come up with a hallowed concept of an ‘oil balance’ to be trusted. Such studies presumed veracity in data, in open borders and at least a modicum of global peace.
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